Freshspective

Refrigerated truckload
The refrigerated truckload market is undergoing a significant seasonal transition as produce harvests shift north across the United States. While overall market conditions remain balanced between trucking supply and demand, freight demand and pricing trends are increasingly diverging between northern and southern growing regions.
Throughout the third quarter, northern markets have experienced a meaningful tightening of refrigerated capacity. The outbound load-to-truck ratio in northern regions has increased two to three times compared to early summer levels, while spot rates have climbed by double-digit percentages.
Much of this activity is being driven by seasonal harvest cycles. Commodities such as potatoes, onions, sweet corn, apples, cherries, and other late-summer produce are increasing outbound freight demand across the Upper Midwest, Pacific Northwest, Great Lakes, and other northern agricultural regions. As these harvests accelerate, competition for refrigerated equipment has intensified and carriers have been able to command stronger pricing.
 
The opposite trend has emerged across much of the South. As growing seasons wind-down in produce regions, freight demand has softened considerably. Markets that earlier in the year had shipments of watermelons, berries, tomatoes, citrus, and other produce are now experiencing significantly lower freight activity. Out of the southern markets, load-to-truck ratios have fallen to one-third to one-half of their early summer levels. This has contributed to lower spot pricing and improved capacity.
 
Looking ahead, these seasonal patterns are expected to continue. Freight originating in northern regions traditionally experiences strengthening cost-per-mile trends through the remainder of the harvest season, even as load-to-truck ratios begin to level off. The combination of harvest activity, seasonal food demand, and year-end shipping patterns are primary drivers.
 
Meanwhile, the load-to-truck ratio out of southern markets is expected to reach its annual low point during September before gradually rising. Capacity availability and pricing in these regions are expected to stabilize and follow more traditional seasonal patterns through the remainder of the year.
 
 
C.H. Robinson 2027 refrigerated truckload forecast
This month also marks the release of the C.H. Robinson 2027 refrigerated truckload forecast. Current expectations call for refrigerated truckload rates to continue to rise on a y/y basis throughout 2027. The largest increases are expected during the first half of the year, due to relatively soft comparisons from early 2026 and tighter capacity across the trucking industry, then may taper down as the year progresses.

OCEAN TRENDS - Global ocean freight markets continue to gradually stabilize, although regional disruptions and geopolitical risks remain. The security situation in the Red Sea and surrounding region continues to influence carrier routing decisions; however, several major carriers, including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC, CMA CGM, and COSCO, have expanded utilization of the Suez Canal on select trade lanes. These routing changes have improved transit times and supported gradual network normalization, while vessel traffic through the canal has continued to recover from crisis-related lows. Despite these improvements, carriers maintain contingency plans to reroute vessels via the Cape of Good Hope should regional security conditions deteriorate. War-risk concerns and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continue to influence operating decisions and network planning. Demand for refrigerated equipment remains strong, particularly during peak produce export seasons in South America, where agricultural exports continue to drive reefer utilization. Equipment repositioning challenges and localized reefer shortages remain present in certain export markets, although overall service reliability and equipment availability have improved compared to prior years. Localized space constraints and equipment imbalances continue to occur across select trade lanes.

TARIFF IMPACTS - The U.S. tariff environment remains highly dynamic and continues to present significant compliance and cost-management challenges for importers. The temporary Section 122 import surcharge expired on July 24, 2026, upon reaching its statutory 150-day limit. Simultaneously, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) implemented new Section 301 tariff measures applicable to approximately 60 economies, establishing a two-tier tariff structure generally ranging from 10 percent to 12.5 percent. As a result, many importers have experienced little overall reduction in duty exposure despite the expiration of the Section 122 surcharge, as the new Section 301 measures largely replaced the temporary surcharge framework. Existing Section 301, Section 232, antidumping, and countervailing duty programs remain in effect, and additional trade actions continue to be evaluated under multiple statutory authorities. Importers should continue monitoring developments closely, as trade policy remains subject to ongoing regulatory, judicial, and administrative developments.

DEMURRAGE/DETENTION CHARGES - Following the September 23, 2025 decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit in World Shipping Council v. Federal Maritime Commission, the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) ceased enforcement of 46 CFR Section 541.4, the provision governing which parties may be invoiced for demurrage and detention charges. The FMC subsequently removed Section 541.4 from the Code of Federal Regulations. The court vacated only that section of the rule and left all remaining Demurrage and Detention Billing Requirements fully intact. Accordingly, invoice-content requirements, the 30-day invoice issuance deadline, and associated billing dispute timelines remain enforceable. The FMC has indicated that future rulemaking may address invoicing responsibility; however, no replacement regulation has been finalized as of September 2026. As a result, contractual provisions and commercial agreements currently remain the primary mechanisms governing responsibility for demurrage and detention charges. Stakeholders should continue reviewing contractual allocations of demurrage and detention liability and ensure billing practices align with the remaining requirements of 46 CFR Part 541.

REGULATORY & COMPLIANCE LANDSCAPE - The FDA continues implementation activities associated with the Food Safety Modernization Act (FSMA) Section 204 Food Traceability Rule. The compliance deadline remains July 20, 2028. Although enforcement remains deferred, FDA has continued conducting stakeholder outreach, public meetings, tabletop readiness exercises, and discussions regarding potential implementation flexibilities, particularly concerning lot-level traceability requirements. During 2026, FDA conducted additional stakeholder engagement activities and released supplemental implementation materials focused on compliance flexibilities and industry readiness. Many retailers, foodservice providers, and supply chain partners continue advancing traceability initiatives ahead of the compliance deadline and may require enhanced recordkeeping and electronic data-sharing capabilities before federal enforcement begins. Companies handling Food Traceability List products should continue preparing for compliance despite the extended implementation timeline.

ISPM-15 WOOD PACKAGING PROTOCOLS (UPDATED 2026) - Effective January 1, 2026, USDA APHIS and U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) resumed full enforcement of the ISPM-15 hyphen requirement contained within the IPPC wood packaging mark. The agencies previously suspended enforcement during much of 2025 but confirmed there would be no additional grace period or soft-enforcement period following December 31, 2025. Shipments containing noncompliant wood packaging materials may be subject to cargo holds, re-export requirements, penalties, or other enforcement actions. Importers and exporters should ensure all wood packaging materials fully comply with ISPM-15 marking requirements, including the required hyphen separating the country code from the producer code, in order to avoid potential supply chain disruptions.

EMERGENCY BUNKER SURCHARGE - Emergency bunker, fuel, war-risk, security, contingency, and conflict-related surcharges continue to impact global ocean transportation costs. Although portions of the container shipping industry have cautiously resumed Red Sea and Suez Canal transits, many carriers continue to apply war-risk and contingency-based pricing mechanisms due to ongoing geopolitical instability, elevated insurance premiums, and operational uncertainty in the Middle East. Recent security incidents and periodic disruptions in the Red Sea, Gulf region, and adjacent waterways continue to create uncertainty regarding transportation costs, transit times, schedule reliability, and network planning. While freight markets remain generally balanced, carriers maintain the flexibility to adjust surcharge programs rapidly in response to security developments, insurance market conditions, fuel costs, and vessel-routing decisions. Importers and exporters should continue monitoring carrier advisories closely, as war-risk and conflict-related surcharges may be implemented, modified, or withdrawn on short notice.